Risco que os investidores atribuem a Portugal supera o do Líbano
O risco de incumprimento atribuído a Portugal pelos investidores no mercado de CDS superou hoje os 300 pontos base, um valor superior ao do Líbano e que duplica o atribuído a países como as Filipinas e a Indonésia.
segunda-feira, 26 de abril de 2010
terça-feira, 20 de abril de 2010
sexta-feira, 16 de abril de 2010
Ahora en portuñol
Pelo podias não devíamos ser gozados por toda a Europa...o Obama deve estar muito contente...
Austeridade à Portuguesa
Apesar do atraso...merece sempre uma leitura.Se calhar também são parvoíces e devemos fazer como as avestruzes...ou então o FT é parte integrante da conspiração contra José Sócrates.
Austerity, Portuguese style
Posted by Neil Hume on Mar 08 14:50.
Not enough to avert a further downgrade by rating agencies. That’s the verdict from Unicredit economist Tullia Bucco, who has been examining the preliminary details of Portugal’s revised austerity plan.
The headlines news is that Portugal is proposing to reduce its budget deficit from 9.3 per cent to 2.8 per cent by 2013 by raising taxes on higher earners and stock market gains, and trimming spending on civil servants and public investments.
But Bucco notes that the plan is somewhat heroic, based on probably unrealistic growth forecasts and is much too timid when it comes to the public sector. Says Bucco:
The fiscal adjustment is somewhat back-loaded, as the government foresees a consolidation of just 1pp in the deficit-to-GDP ratio this year, followed by a gradual step-up in the pace of reduction from 2011 onwards (by 1.7pp in 2011 and 1.9 pp in 2012 and 2013).
According to the headlines, half of the deficit reduction will be achieved through lower spending, with revenue measures accounting about 15% and the cyclical improvement doing the rest of the job. The government expects GDP to grow 0.7% in 2010; 0.9% in 2011; 1.3% in 2012 and 1.7% in 2013. Considering that GDP expanded 0.8% on average in 2002-2008, these assumptions probably suffer from downside risks, therefore casting some doubts that the deficit will come down at the pace the government projects.
Cuts in public expenditure depend on a reduction in public investment and compensation of employees, both seen decreasing by a cumulative 1.5% of GDP by 2013. The government plans to reduce the wage bill by making any salary increase lower than inflation and lowering the turnover, i.e. replacing only 1 employee for every 2 workers who retire. We think that these efforts are too timid, considering that compensation of employees is about one third of primary expenditure.
As such he thinks Portugal will probably lose its A- rating from S&P.
Sovereign risk, it seems, is still alive and kicking.
Austerity, Portuguese style
Posted by Neil Hume on Mar 08 14:50.
Not enough to avert a further downgrade by rating agencies. That’s the verdict from Unicredit economist Tullia Bucco, who has been examining the preliminary details of Portugal’s revised austerity plan.
The headlines news is that Portugal is proposing to reduce its budget deficit from 9.3 per cent to 2.8 per cent by 2013 by raising taxes on higher earners and stock market gains, and trimming spending on civil servants and public investments.
But Bucco notes that the plan is somewhat heroic, based on probably unrealistic growth forecasts and is much too timid when it comes to the public sector. Says Bucco:
The fiscal adjustment is somewhat back-loaded, as the government foresees a consolidation of just 1pp in the deficit-to-GDP ratio this year, followed by a gradual step-up in the pace of reduction from 2011 onwards (by 1.7pp in 2011 and 1.9 pp in 2012 and 2013).
According to the headlines, half of the deficit reduction will be achieved through lower spending, with revenue measures accounting about 15% and the cyclical improvement doing the rest of the job. The government expects GDP to grow 0.7% in 2010; 0.9% in 2011; 1.3% in 2012 and 1.7% in 2013. Considering that GDP expanded 0.8% on average in 2002-2008, these assumptions probably suffer from downside risks, therefore casting some doubts that the deficit will come down at the pace the government projects.
Cuts in public expenditure depend on a reduction in public investment and compensation of employees, both seen decreasing by a cumulative 1.5% of GDP by 2013. The government plans to reduce the wage bill by making any salary increase lower than inflation and lowering the turnover, i.e. replacing only 1 employee for every 2 workers who retire. We think that these efforts are too timid, considering that compensation of employees is about one third of primary expenditure.
As such he thinks Portugal will probably lose its A- rating from S&P.
Sovereign risk, it seems, is still alive and kicking.
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